Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.