From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.
The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.
He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.
Put aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.
We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.
